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The country of birth influence on Israelis expectation from the US presidential election results

Russian-speaking Israelis have positive expectations from the victory of Republicans in the US presidential election in connection with issues of Israel foreign policy, its economic situation, national security, relations with Arab countries, and the Israel-Arab conflict. Repatriates from other countries take a similar position, unlike native Israelis, whose positive expectations from the United States prevail over negative ones, regardless of who comes to power.

It is possible to assume a weak preference for Democrats among native Israelis, which follows from their answers regarding the influence of the US elections on economic situation in Israel and relations with Arab countries. Non-native Israelis who are not repatriates from the former USSR countries (others) in most cases prefer the victory of Republicans even more than Russian-speaking Israelis. The exception is estimates of the prospects for the US presidential election influence only on relations with China and Russia, which are not very different among respondents belonging to different groups by country of birth.

The influence of the US election on economic situation in Israel:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive23%29%27%18%33%21%
2Negative14%13%13%18%9%24%
3Both28%24%31%29%23%18%
4Will not affect8%8%9%13%9%11%
5Don’t know27%26%20%22%26%26%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 16)

The influence of the US presidential election on Israel foreign policy independence, its ability to influence world politics and defend its interests:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive24%24%34%13%35%21%
2Negative13%16%11%33%12%20%
3Both27%24%26%33%21%27%
4Will not affect9%10%13%5%8%8%
5Don’t know27%26%16%16%24%24%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 17)

The field of national security is among the few fields where there is some consensus on the desirability of a Republican candidate winning in the US election. This is stated by 25-35% of respondents in all groups, and the same about the candidate from Democrats victory reports 14-24% of respondents. Repatriates from the former USSR countries are more likely than others fear a decrease in national security if a Democratic candidate wins the US elections (26% versus 15-17% in other groups).

The influence of the US election on Israel national security:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive25%24%29%14%35%21%
2Negative12%15%9%26%6%17%
3Both23%22%27%22%24%21%
4Will not affect14%15%18%22%15%21%
5Don’t know26%24%17%16%20%20%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 18)

The influence of the US election on relations between Israel and Arab countries:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive25%29%26%18%36%29%
2Negative15%13%16%26%11%17%
3Both25%24%25%20%20%24%
4Will not affect10%10%11%16%10%9%
5Don’t know25%24%22%20%20%20%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 19)

Russian-speaking repatriates are significantly more likely than others (31% versus 20-23% in other groups) note negative consequences for Israel-Palestinian relations if a Democratic candidate win in the United States, and less often — positive consequences of a Democratic candidate winning (15% versus 20% in other groups).

The influence of the US election on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: (Table 20)

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive20%20%24%15%24%20%
2Negative16%20%13%31%18%23%
3Both28%25%29%22%24%24%
4Will not affect12%12%16%16%11%10%
5Don’t know24%23%18%16%23%23%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 20)

The influence of the US election on relations between Israel and China:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive9%13%9%9%14%8%
2Negative16%13%15%17%17%17%
3Both20%18%29%20%6%12%
4Will not affect19%21%9%18%30%30%
5Don’t know36%35%38%36%33%33%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
( Table 21)

The influence of the US election on relations between Israel and Russia:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive10%12%9%9%15%15%
2Negative17%17%13%15%9%9%
3Both21%20%29%18%18%18%
4Will not affect20%19%15%24%31%31%
5Don’t know32%32%34%34%27%27%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 22)

The peculiarity in the answers of Russian-speaking Israelis regarding the influence of the US presidential elections on socio-political situation is that only 4% of them pointed out the possible negative consequences of Republican coming to power, and 20% — of Democratic coming to power. No other group has such a difference between the proportions of responses relating to the negative consequences of Democratic president coming in or the one from Republicans. In addition, in other groups, 12-15% of respondents note negative consequences of the victory of Democratic candidate, while 20% of repatriates from the former USSR countries not the same. They less often than others talk about the positive consequences of a Democratic victory (11% versus 17-18% in other groups).

The influence of the US election on socio-political tensions in Israel:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive11%18%14%11%18%17%
2Negative16%15%4%20%9%12%
3Both20%17%31%18%15%16%
4Will not affect29%27%35%33%32%29%
5Don’t know24%23%16%18%26%26%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 23)

In the question regarding the US presidential elections influence on Israel foreign policy, Russian-speaking repatriates are less often than others talk about the positive effect of the victory of Democratic candidate (11% versus 21-24% in other groups), and more often about the negative effect of this event (22% versus 14% -20% in other groups).

The influence of the US presidential election on Israel foreign policy:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive22%24%23%11%30%21%
2Negative13%14%11%22%12%20%
3Both29%27%33%33%24%20%
4Will not affect10%11%11%14%11%13%
5Don’t know26%24%22%20%23%26%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 24)

The influence of the US election on Israel position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict:

 OptionsNative IsraelisRepublicans DemocratsRepatriates from the former USSR countriesRepublicans DemocratsOthersRepublicans Democrats
1Positive9%13%9%7%9%6%
2Negative11%10%9%13%9%9%
3Both20%18%18%11%18%18%
4Will not affect26%26%31%36%29%33%
5Don’t know34%33%33%33%35%34%
 Total100%100%100%100%100%100%
(Table 25)

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