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Historical material. Dates, proposals and invitations refer to the time of the original publication.
Against the backdrop of demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands of people and other developments in Israeli politics, a question arises: how do these events affect Israel’s international position, and what domestic consequences can be expected?
Deteriorating relations with Muslim countries, Iran’s expansionist policy supported by China, and other challenges make Israel’s security situation extremely difficult. In our assessment, the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is one such foreign-policy risk that could worsen Israel’s security situation.
The question of Israeli involvement in the Russia–Ukraine conflict and support for one side also affects the domestic agenda. Pressure on the Israeli government to take Ukraine’s side adds uncertainty to an unbalanced political system in Israel.
Research aims and participants
Since 2018, the Dor Moriah association has run the Haifa Format project, which began as a civic initiative. In March 2023, the association’s International Analytical Centre launched the study “Israel’s attitude to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine”.
The study focuses on Israeli views of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the question of Israeli involvement in it.
The main aim of the study is to identify the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of population groups with differing views of Israel’s involvement and role in the Russia–Ukraine conflict. It analyses Israelis’ concerns and preferences regarding greater Israeli involvement, whether in support of a party to the conflict or as a mediator.
Given the importance of the issue for Israel’s security, two surveys were conducted: expert interviews and a mass survey of Israelis who are not Russian speakers.
For this study, non-Russian-speaking Israelis include those born in the country and those who immigrated as children and are fully integrated into Israeli culture. The Russian-speaking population was not surveyed.
Expert interviews and the mass survey
The principal aim of the expert survey was to refine the questions for the mass-survey questionnaire. Expert interviews were conducted in early March 2023.
The survey involved experts in foreign and domestic policy and opinion leaders: a senior lawyer, journalists specialising in the conflict, a politician, a sociologist and an activist working on assistance to refugees from Russia and Ukraine and humanitarian aid for residents of Ukraine.
The sociological study, commissioned by the International Analytical Centre for Human Potential Development, was conducted by the Maagar Mochot sociological institute (www.maagar-mochot.co.il). The findings will be presented at a Haifa Forum roundtable involving Knesset members, scholars, journalists, civic activists and political experts from Israel and abroad. The topic is the risks to Israel if it becomes actively involved in the Russia–Ukraine conflict on one side.
Findings from the expert stage
The expert-survey results and principal survey data have been prepared, providing a basis for several conclusions:
A small number of Russian-speaking Israelis with “dual loyalty” (stronger loyalty to their country of origin than to Israel), who seek to influence the countries of origin involved in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, show a sustained interest in the conflict. This category also includes people from former Soviet countries other than Russia or Ukraine. Of Israel’s approximately ten million residents, about one and a half million are Russian speakers.
Most native-born Israelis, known as “sabras”, whose mother tongue is Hebrew, do not see a difference between Russia and Ukraine. Many believe Ukraine is part of Russia. Among those who know they are separate countries, many understand neither the meaning of the conflict nor the parties involved. People obtain their information from the media.
Historical memory in expert assessments
Another important conclusion is that Ukraine evokes grim historical memories among a large part of Israel’s religious public. These memories are associated with numerous instances of mass killing of Jews in the territory of modern Ukraine. This memory is anchored not only in historical facts but also in significant dates in Jewish tradition. From the perspective of non-Russian-speaking Israelis, particularly in the ultra-Orthodox sector, Ukrainian politicians and authorities glorify historical figures involved in the destruction of Jews in Ukraine (some experts used the term “genocide”). On Tisha B’Av, the Jewish day of mourning, Israelis remember not only the destruction of the First and Second Temples in Jerusalem but also the terrible pogroms of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, the Koliivshchyna uprising and other episodes of mass killing of Jews. Jews lived in Ukraine over a long period.
“Orthodox rabbis are well aware of the period of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, who killed between 100 and 300 thousand Jews, the period of Hetman Mazepa, the period of Petliura, who killed 200 thousand Jews, and the period of Ukrainian nationalists who supported the Third Reich. According to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust memorial, approximately 600,000 Jews were killed on Ukrainian soil during the Second World War.”
The third conclusion is that most non-Russian-speaking Israelis wish, where possible, to minimise Israel’s participation in any form in the military and political conflict between Russia and Ukraine, regardless of which side Israel supports. This position does not concern assistance to civilians affected by the conflict. Israeli peacemaking is regarded as preferable to active military support for either side. Besides the historical memory mentioned above, the reason is public recognition that “it is not in Israel’s interest to quarrel with Russia”. This is pragmatism rather than ideology. It is not in Israel’s interest to quarrel with Russia, especially given its nearby presence in Syria. Most experts argue that this is not our war and that the government should not become involved in a “foreign” conflict.
Dor Moriah plans to make the Haifa Format a permanent discussion platform on “Possible risks for Israel and Israeli residents”, based on ongoing monitoring of public opinion and expert assessments in foreign and domestic policy.
