Israel’s Central Elections Committee is due to publish the final results of the election for the 26th Knesset on November 4 [3]. If the first two candidates fail to form a government and no third candidate emerges during the following 21 days, the timetable set out below could lead to a repeat election on May 11, 2027 — 196 days after the October 27 vote. Benjamin Netanyahu will remain prime minister until a new government is sworn in [22].

The Arithmetic of Deadlock

According to Channel 12 News on October 29, with about 5.13 million votes counted, roughly 90 percent of the total, Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats, the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot holds 48, and the Arab parties hold 19: 11 for the Joint List and eight for Ra’am [21]. A majority requires 61, and neither camp has it. Likud remains the largest party with 26 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar! with 21 [21]. On election night, Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas told Channel 12 that with these numbers there is no government, and that both blocs had reached out to him [2]. The Central Elections Committee estimates that 430,000 to 480,000 double-envelope ballots, cast by soldiers, diplomats and prisoners, have yet to be counted [3].

53–48–19: the starting position

53 · Netanyahu’s bloc

Eight seats short of 61. Likud holds 26.

48 · Eisenkot’s bloc

Thirteen seats short of 61. Yashar! holds 21.

19 · Arab parties

Joint List: 11; Ra’am: 8. Together with Eisenkot’s bloc: 67.

Exit polls by the major networks on the evening of Oct. 27 put Eisenkot’s bloc ahead, and the actual count reversed the order [2]. Only Channel 14, which is close to Netanyahu, erred in the other direction, projecting 60 seats for his bloc instead of 53 and 43 for Eisenkot’s instead of 48 [2]. Turnout stood at 77.7 percent at 10 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee [2]. Ra’am’s campaign had set a target of 73 percent turnout among Arab voters, up from 55 percent in 2022 [2]. Arab voters accounted for about half of the overall rise in turnout [2].

Liberman’s Golden Seat

Together with the Arab parties, Eisenkot’s bloc has 67 seats, a majority. Without the seven seats of Yisrael Beytenu, it has 60, one short of 61. That puts the decision above all in the hands of Avigdor Liberman, who ruled out, in advance and in writing, any majority that depends on the Arab parties.

The opposition split before a single ballot was cast. In early October, the four leaders of the bloc’s Zionist wing, Eisenkot, Liberman, Naftali Bennett and Yair Golan, agreed not to attack one another until Oct. 27 [4]. The truce did not hold. On Oct. 15, Liberman rejected Eisenkot’s plan to form a government even if his bloc won only 58 or 59 seats, and said he would not back any minority government, not even a temporary one [6]. A day later he published a post titled “Gadi Eisenkot: Benny Gantz 2,” in which he wrote that his ally was secretly preparing a government with Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties [5] [7]. In the same post he repeated that his party would join neither a coalition with Ra’am or the Joint List nor a government that relies on their support from outside [7]. He has held that position, he said, since the Hamas massacre of Oct. 7, 2023 [7].

Rejecting a minority government and rejecting outside support from the Arab parties amount to the same thing. A new Israeli government does not need 61 votes to take office. It needs more votes for than against [22]. Netanyahu’s 53 lawmakers will vote against an Eisenkot government, and only the Arab parties can supply the margin. With Liberman and Ra’am’s eight seats, an Eisenkot government would pass 56 to 53 even if the Joint List abstained.

Without Liberman but with all of the Arab parties, the change camp has 60 votes. If Liberman abstains, a government passes 60 to 53. If he votes against it alongside Netanyahu’s bloc, the tally is 60 to 60, and it fails. Bennett’s government won its confidence vote in June 2021 by a similarly narrow margin, 60 to 59, with one Ra’am lawmaker abstaining [15].

Three confidence-vote scenarios

56 to 53

Liberman supports, Ra’am votes in favor, and the Joint List abstains. The government wins confidence.

Conditional arithmetic assuming support from the remaining Eisenkot-bloc parties, including Bennett’s 12 Beyachad lawmakers.

60 to 53

All Arab parties vote in favor and Liberman abstains. The government wins confidence.

60 to 60

All Arab parties vote in favor and Liberman votes against with Netanyahu’s bloc. The government fails to win confidence.

Bennett, too, has ruled out a government with the Arab parties, The Jewish Chronicle reported on Oct. 28 [2]. The same 60 votes include the 12 seats of his Together (Beyachad) list, so Bennett can also block a government that rests on Arab support. Golan, by contrast, called that day for a change government built in partnership with Arab citizens, and Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List told the public broadcaster Kan that his party was extending a hand to the change bloc [1] [2].

In the spring of 2019, Liberman left Netanyahu one seat short of a majority. He refused to join the government unless a bill on drafting ultra-Orthodox men passed in its original form [8]. He walked away even from the defense ministry, which had already been agreed upon [9]. The arithmetic now repeats itself to the seat, except that this time Liberman would be leaving Eisenkot short. In 2019, staying out of the coalition was enough, because Netanyahu never put a minority government to a confidence vote and had the Knesset dissolve itself instead. To stop a change government now, Liberman would have to vote openly with Netanyahu.

No Rotation

Speaking at Likud headquarters in the early hours of October 28, Netanyahu ruled out a rotation agreement, the arrangement under which coalition partners take turns as prime minister [2]. He lacks a majority, but he is in no hurry because of the procedure that begins after the official results are published. The first attempt to form a government usually goes to the lawmaker with the most recommendations in the president’s consultations with the parties; the law does not require the president to choose that candidate [22].

The procedure is set out in the Basic Law on the Government [22].

  1. The Central Elections Committee publishes the final results and presents them to President Isaac Herzog.
  2. Within seven days, Herzog consults with the Knesset factions and assigns one lawmaker to form a government.
  3. That lawmaker has 28 days, which Herzog can extend by no more than 14 days.
  4. If the attempt fails, Herzog has three days to assign the task to a second lawmaker, who gets 28 days, or to announce that he sees no possibility of forming a government and move the process to the Knesset.
  5. If the second attempt fails, a majority of the Knesset has 21 days to nominate a third candidate in writing. The president assigns the task within two days, and the candidate then has 14 days.
  6. If no such request is submitted, or the final candidate also fails, following the announcement required by law the Knesset is deemed to have decided to dissolve itself, and elections take place on the last Tuesday before 90 days have elapsed.

The legal basis for Netanyahu’s advantage is Section 30 of the same law, under which his cabinet stays in office until a new one is sworn in [22]. A caretaker government retains all of its formal powers, up to and including the authority to launch a military operation, alongside an obligation to exercise restraint, Ynet noted [1]. Operations Guardian of the Walls and Breaking Dawn were both launched by caretaker governments [1].

The process can be cut short, and it has been before. After the April 2019 election, Netanyahu failed to assemble a coalition before his deadline, and rather than let the mandate pass to a rival, the Knesset voted 74 to 45 on May 30 to dissolve itself [10]. Netanyahu cannot take that step on his own now, because dissolution requires a majority of all 120 lawmakers, and his bloc has 53 [22].

Between April 2019 and March 2021, Israel held four elections, and Netanyahu’s bloc never won 61 seats without Liberman [11] [12] [13]. After the third, in March 2020, Blue and White, the main alliance of his opponents, broke apart, and Benny Gantz joined a Netanyahu government under a rotation agreement [14]. In June 2021, the Knesset approved Bennett’s government by a single vote, and Netanyahu lost office [15].

For more than two years, from the April 2019 election until Bennett was sworn in, Netanyahu remained prime minister. He returned in the fifth election, in November 2022, when the left-wing Meretz and the Arab party Balad fell below the threshold and nearly 290,000 of their votes were wasted [17]. The gap between the blocs that year was only about 30,000 votes [18]. Repeat elections bought Netanyahu time in office and split his opponents, but they did not win him votes.

With an Open Mind

If Liberman holds to his ban and Bennett to his refusal, no candidate is likely to reach a majority, and the process will probably run all the way to the Knesset’s dissolution. In that case Likud is likely to let the clock run, all the more so because it cannot dissolve the Knesset early without votes from its rivals. Repeat elections cost the prime minister less than anyone else, because he stays in office the whole time.

For his rivals, the cost is high, each for a different reason. Eisenkot and Bennett campaigned on a promise to change the government, and instead their voters would get another half-year of Netanyahu and another campaign. Disappointment of that kind falls on those who made the promise. Abbas has built Ra’am’s politics around taking part in government, a strategy that took Ra’am into Bennett’s coalition [16], and without a government he has nothing to show the Arab voters who turned out this time. Liberman would be cast as the culprit, since his ban is what leaves the change camp without a majority.

A second path opens if Liberman drops his ban and accepts outside support from Ra’am, or merely abstains in the confidence vote, and Bennett drops his refusal as well. Arithmetically, such a government could stand, but Liberman would pay for it with his own voters. He would have to retreat in public from a ban he put in writing on the eve of the election.

That leaves a unity government, which Israel’s president is urging and which is being discussed in Washington. On October 28, Herzog called for doing everything possible to avoid another election and asked the parties to come to the consultations “with an open mind” [2]. That day, media reports citing unnamed American sources said Donald Trump’s administration did not want Itamar Ben-Gvir in the next government. A US official, however, told The Times of Israel that no decision had been made to intervene in coalition talks and that reports of Washington’s preferences were premature [23].

A unity government would require either Netanyahu to accept rotation and give up the premiership for part of the term, or Eisenkot to abandon the central promise of his campaign, to replace the government. If Washington insists on dropping Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu would also have to break up his own bloc. In that deal, he gives up more than he gets.

Of the three options, only a drawn-out negotiation costs Netanyahu nothing. A minority government resting on Ra’am removes him from power. A unity government demands rotation or a break with Ben-Gvir. Waiting keeps him in the prime minister’s office at least until the next election. Netanyahu’s interest, then, is to run out the clock, and whether he can is up to Liberman and Bennett. If they keep their ban on relying on the Arab parties until Jan. 23, when the second mandate expires in the scenario described, and no third candidate emerges, this calculation puts the repeat election on May 11, 2027.

Values in My Worldview

In another scenario, the deadlock breaks without any deal among party leaders, as right-leaning lawmakers in the change camp cross over to Netanyahu one at a time. The trigger could be an acute crisis, military or religious, that a defecting lawmaker can cite to voters.

There is a precedent. On April 6, 2022, Idit Silman, the coalition whip and a lawmaker from Bennett’s Yamina party, quit the coalition after a dispute with Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz over allowing leavened bread into hospitals during Passover [19]. In her resignation letter she wrote that “key values in my worldview are inconsistent with current reality,” leaving Bennett’s government with 60 of the Knesset’s 120 seats [19]. In June 2022 the coalition collapsed and the Knesset was dissolved [18]. In December 2022, Silman became environmental protection minister in Netanyahu’s government [20].

Sources

  1. Ynet, Oct. 28, 2026. “Israel election results: Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats, Eisenkot bloc at 48 as nearly all votes counted.”ynetnews.com ↗ ↩
  2. The Jewish Chronicle, Oct. 27–28, 2026. “Israel elections 2026 live.”thejc.com ↗ ↩
  3. The Times of Israel, Oct. 28, 2026. “CEC estimates up to 480,000 ballots from troops, police, diplomats yet to be counted.”timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩
  4. The Times of Israel, Oct. 16, 2026. “In opposition infighting, Liberman assails Eisenkot.”timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩
  5. The Times of Israel, Oct. 16, 2026. “Liberman accuses Eisenkot of seeking to form unity government with Likud: ‘He’s Gantz 2.’”timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩
  6. Ynet, Oct. 15, 2026. “Liberman rejects Eisenkot’s minority government plan.”ynetnews.com ↗ ↩
Show all sources (23)Collapse sources
  1. Ynet, Oct. 16, 2026. “Liberman accuses Eisenkot of plotting coalition with Netanyahu.”ynetnews.com ↗ ↩
  2. The Times of Israel, July 30, 2019. “Announcing Knesset slate, Liberman vows to force unity government.”timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩
  3. Arutz Sheva, a right-wing news site, citing Yedioth Ahronoth, May 2019.israelnationalnews.com ↗ ↩
  4. PBS NewsHour, May 29–30, 2019. “Israeli parliament votes to dissolve, calling second election this year.”pbs.org ↗ ↩
  5. The Algemeiner, March 2, 2020. “Israeli exit polls show advantage, but not outright majority, for Netanyahu.”algemeiner.com ↗ ↩
  6. Axios, March 5, 2020. “Israeli election final results.”axios.com ↗ ↩
  7. PBS NewsHour, March 25, 2021. “Final vote results show major setback for Israel’s Netanyahu.”pbs.org ↗ ↩
  8. The Times of Israel, 2021. “Lapid says he’s had no contact with Gantz, Ashkenazi since stormy split.”timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩
  9. i24NEWS, June 13, 2021. “Bennett sworn in as Israel’s 13th prime minister.”i24news.tv ↗ ↩
  10. Arise News, June 13, 2021. “Change of government as Israel gets new prime minister.”arise.tv ↗ ↩
  11. J Street, 2026. “Five weeks to go until Israel’s election: the field is set.”jstreet.org ↗ ↩
  12. Labour Friends of Israel, November 2022. “Analysis: Israel’s 2022 election, a review.”lfi.org.uk ↗ ↩
  13. PBS NewsHour, April 6, 2022. “Israeli lawmaker quits parliament, breaking government majority.”pbs.org ↗ ↩
  14. Ynet, Dec. 29, 2022. “Some old and new names in Netanyahu’s new government.”ynetnews.com ↗ ↩
  15. Channel 12 News, Dafna Liel, Oct. 29, 2026. Vote-count graphic, 5,129,748 votes counted (Hebrew). ↩
  16. Knesset. Basic Law: The Government, sections 7–13 and 30.main.knesset.gov.il ↗ ↩
  17. The Times of Israel, October 28–29, 2026. White House has not made decision to intervene in Israeli coalition talks — official.timesofisrael.com ↗ ↩