Global connections
Research & archive
Historical material. Dates, proposals and invitations refer to the time of the original publication.
The research question
If the situation «Gaza without Hamas» were to occur, what consequences do you envision for Israel? What scenarios do you see for changes in the country’s internal political, social, and economic situation?
| Scenario | Basis of the expectation |
|---|---|
| Optimistic | Development of the Abraham Accords and regional cooperation. |
| Restrained | Leaders’ and public responses depend on security and the new administration in Gaza. |
| Pessimistic | Concerns about internal conflict and political radicalization. |
Regional cooperation
Responses to this question posed significant challenges for the respondents. Nevertheless, an optimistic scenario looks like this: «It all depends on how quickly the alliance between Sunni monarchies and Israel develops within the framework of the Abraham Accords. And how quickly the American military umbrella unfolds over this regional alliance. The ‘Semite Knot’ will have a high potential for economic development, utilizing resources from the Western world and BRICS.»
Cautious expectations
The following can be classified as “restrained” forecasts: «Gaza without Hamas could potentially open up new opportunities for peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. But the reaction to this will depend on Israel’s political leadership. I do not expect a sharp change in leadership in Israel, but rather a change in the political map. Thus, some leaders may remain cautious or skeptical about the intentions of any new leadership in the Gaza Strip, while others may see this as an opportunity for peace. The reaction of the Israeli public will also vary. Some may welcome the changes if they lead to increased security and stability, while others may be concerned about potential security risks or the consequences of dealing with the new Palestinian Authority.»
Internal risks
There are also pessimistic scenarios: «It should be noted that the most radical part of Israeli society—religious Zionists, including thanks to the war, have strengthened militarized and political structures. They advocate for the expansion of settlements and for the ‘transfer’ of the Palestinian population. Unlike the Haredim, they are part of the IDF and intelligence services and largely define the ideology of military rabbis. This is the most unpredictable factor, as it is with ministers from this sector that the US administration has encountered problems recently. Whether it’s the distribution of long-barreled weapons to settlers, the delay in paying taxes collected for the Palestinian Authority, or settler violence in the West Bank. So, in the event of the development of the Abraham Accords or the creation of a Palestinian state, I would not rule out the scenario of civil war.» «I don’t understand how Gaza without Hamas could positively and constructively impact the internal, social, and economic situation, bringing benefits to genuine dialogue for peace, due to the immense hatred and sense of superiority of Jews over Palestinians. Gaza without Hamas will be perceived as a victory for Israel, exacerbating the crisis of radical political support and Israel’s superiority over the Palestinians.»
About the source
An archival expert survey, November 2023. These are historical opinions and hypotheses; the excerpts do not name the respondents.
The Knesset, 3 July 2022. Clema12. Original photograph · License. Framing and restrained tonal adaptation using built-in AI; a processed version of the source photograph. This archival photograph supplies context; it does not depict the survey event or map proposed borders.
Original publication Previous chapter: Gaza and Hamas: why the distinction matters Next chapter: Israel’s borders: scenarios discussed by experts